There is so much brilliant Brexit news these days it’s difficult to keep track of it all. But I’ve had a go so here is my updated graphs blog – enjoy!
This is a graph of Britain’s GDP growth from 1957 to 2015 which shows that GDP growth constantly increased before we joined the EU and consistently declined afterwards. (ONS source here) In the 40 years since we joined the EU, GDP growth more than halved. Coincidence?
Above is a graph showing how Britain had relatively balanced trade (equal imports and exports) for 40 years from 1946 onwards. But then in 1986 Margret Thatcher signed the Single European Act and our Current Account Balance collapsed. As we became increasingly integrated within the EU it declined more and more … But hey, the above graph only goes up to 2014, So what has been happening since we voted to leave? The collapse in exports the wolf-cryers assured us would happen? No…
Since the Brexit vote our balance of trade have rebounded spectacularly. Coincidence?
This next graph shows how there is a correlation between GDP growth and EU integration: The more deeply integrated a nation is within the EU the lower its GDP growth is likely to be.
The red bar shows the low GDP growth of the Euro founders.
The Green bar shows the GDP growth of EU countries that are not in the Euro (UK, Sweden and Denmark etc)
The purple bar represents the GDP growth of European countries that had the good sense to stay out altogether (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Greenland etc)
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that there is a correlation between democracy and prosperity. Countries in the Single Market cannot vote to pass better laws regarding capital, labour, goods and services which is why they decline. Countries in the Eurozone don’t even have control over interest rates or monetary policy so they decline even more … whereas countries that can vote for better policies prosper. This is surely a statement of the obvious – all our experience tells us that no political system in history succeeds more and fails less than democratic self-rule. Which maybe explains this:
In the 46 years Denmark has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #20 to #36.
In the 24 years Finland has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #32 to #42.
In the 33 years Portugal has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #36 to #47.
In the 38 years Greece has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #30 to #50.
But those examples are by no means exceptional, of all 28 member states how many do you suppose have fallen DOWN the world GDP rankings? 26. Here is the graph:
Above are the 28 EU member states with their GDP rankings shown in dark blue. you will notice that virtually all of them are on a downward path, with the smallest and poorest member states declining furthest and fastest. You can see it in more detail here. So where exactly is the economic argument for membership? When is it going to start existing?
Next, Remain predicted a vote to leave would cause an economic Brex-pocalypse, but this is what actually happened. This is the FTSE 250. We can clearly see the blip on June 23rd 2016 but look what happens next, Brex-geddon is always just around the corner for the Remainiacs…
Next, unemployment. Before the referendum Remain said a vote to leave would cause half a million job losses (who does their forecasting? Nostradamus?) Well this graph shows the reality:
And this graph shows unemployment over an even longer time frame:
The above graph shows that when we joined in 1973 we had 3.7% unemployment … Then we joined and it doubled … And now we are leaving it’s plummeting back to 3.7%. Coincidence? Next up, employment. It’s at record levels…
Next up, government borrowing. This graph (Guardian January ’19) shows how government borrowing has fallen every year since the referendum:
On 21st February 2019 the Telegraph reported: “The Government delivered a record budget surplus in January … A surplus of £14.9bn in January, the largest since records began in 1993, put public sector borrowing on track to comfortably undershoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts. Borrowing in the financial year-to-date is at its lowest level in 17 years.” Could the reality be any more different to the hysterical predictions of the Re-mainiacs?
Next, wages. This graph shows wages over the last five years…
The red line shows the June ’16 referendum. We can clearly see wage rises were more erratic in the years before the referendum and steadier afterwards. Coincidence? They rose less than one percent, in the 30 months before the referendum but by over 1.5% in the 30 months after. Coincidence?
Ahh, but wage rises are irrelevant if inflation is rising faster, so is it? No. It is not…
Yeah yeah, but people might claim that that is a short-term cherry-picked blip. The facts suggest it isn’t. This next graph shows wages as a percentage of GDP over a 60 year period. The red line shows the date we joined. For 25 years before we joined the EU it was about 58% whereas for 40 years after we joined the EU it was consistently about 6% lower. Coincidence?
But hold it … let’s take another look at a wages graph … because it’s so much fun! This is from the Guardian in January …
So the correlation constantly holds up:
Independent democracy = Prosperity.
EU member state = decline.
If Political Union made us more prosperous then surely we would find ourselves selling more and more goods and services to the Single Market and less and less to the rest of the world – but the opposite is happening!
As Phil Radford shows here the Single Market has not benefited any sector of the U.K. Economy.
The next two graphs show how leaving the Single Market will make us richer. The first one shows the long term decline of global tariffs…
…and this one shows our EU contributions going up and up.
There is no such thing as free trade with the EU, we either:
A, pay a membership fee and no tariffs, or…
B, pay tariffs and no membership fee.
Why would we want to pay membership fees that are going up and up, when we could pay tariffs that are going down and down? The obvious answer is that we wouldn’t, unless of course we wanted to make ourselves poorer for the sake of some irrational ideological belief. Clearly paying tariffs will make us richer than paying EU membership fees; doubly so when we consider that the whole of society has to pay the membership fee whereas the only people who need to pay the tariffs are the 6% of British companies that export goods (not services) to the EU. EU tariffs would amount to less than half the UK’s net contribution to the EU budget. That would mean an automatic saving of about £5 billion per annum. What do YOU think that £5 billion should be spent on? Soon you will have a vote on it!
Not convinced yet? Is there maybe some tiny scintilla of doubt about the correlation between independent democracy and prosperity? Ok here is a Map of the world. Lets call the blue area the EU market and the red area the ‘World Market‘.
Which market should we be concerned about? The EU market that is small and has low growth? … or the ‘World Market’ is big and has high growth?
We can either:
A, Lock ourselves into the small, low growth EU market which will make goods from the World Market more expensive and prevent us from doing any trade deals. Or…
B, Not lock ourselves into the EU market in which case we can strike whatever trade deals we like with whoever we like, whenever we like.
It’s the no-brainer of the century. If we remain in a union with the EU we will become less democratic which will mean we will become poorer. ALL the empirical evidence corroborates this and NONE of the empirical evidence contradicts it.
So good news all round – Get ready for the Brexit Boom!
Note – I have stopped updating this blog as of March ’19 as Theresa May’s suspension of Article 50 makes the issue of causation less clear for both sides.
If you aren’t totally bored of this subject, my fantastic book ‘Brexit – How the Nobodies Beat the Somebodies’ is available from i2i Publications.