Yet MORE Graphs that Demolish Remain! (Updated)

There is so much brilliant Brexit news these days it’s difficult to keep track of it all. But I’ve had a go so here is my updated graphs blog – enjoy!

UK-GDP-Growth-Rate-EU

This is a graph of Britain’s GDP growth from 1957 to 2015 which shows that GDP growth constantly increased before we joined the EU and consistently declined afterwards. (ONS source here) In the 40 years since we joined the EU, GDP growth more than halved. Coincidence?

UK-Current-Account-Balance-1946-to-2015-rev-2

Above is a graph showing how Britain had relatively balanced trade (equal imports and exports) for 40 years from 1946 onwards. But then in 1986 Margret Thatcher signed the Single European Act and our Current Account Balance collapsed. As we became increasingly integrated within the EU it declined more and more … But hey, the above graph only goes up to 2014, So what has been happening since we voted to leave? The collapse in exports the wolf-cryers assured us would happen? No…

Screen Shot 2018-12-07 at 09.02.19

Since the Brexit vote our balance of trade have rebounded spectacularly. Coincidence?

This next graph shows how there is a correlation between GDP growth and EU integration: The more deeply integrated a nation is within the EU the lower its GDP growth is likely to be.

The red bar shows the low GDP growth of the Euro founders.
The Green bar shows the GDP growth of EU countries that are not in the Euro (UK, Sweden and Denmark etc)
The purple bar represents the GDP growth of European countries that had the good sense to stay out altogether (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Greenland etc)

Overall-GDP-Growth-Europe-TSL-

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that there is a correlation between democracy and prosperity. Countries in the Single Market cannot vote to pass better laws regarding capital, labour, goods and services which is why they decline. Countries in the Eurozone don’t even have control over interest rates or monetary policy so they decline even more … whereas countries that can vote for better policies prosper. This is surely a statement of the obvious – all our experience tells us that no political system in history succeeds more and fails less than democratic self-rule. Which maybe explains this:

DnkTwd-XcAAcxgJ.jpg-large

In the 46 years Denmark has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #20 to #36.

In the 24 years Finland has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #32 to #42.

In the 33 years Portugal has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #36 to #47.

In the 38 years Greece has been a member of the bloc it’s economy has fallen in the world rankings from #30 to #50.

But those examples are by no means exceptional, of all 28 member states how many do you suppose have fallen DOWN the world GDP rankings? 26. Here is the graph:

GDP

Above are the 28 EU member states with their GDP rankings shown in dark blue. you will notice that virtually all of them are on a downward path, with the smallest and poorest member states declining furthest and fastest. You can see it in more detail here. So where exactly is the economic argument for membership? When is it going to start existing?

Next, Remain predicted a vote to leave would cause an economic Brex-pocalypse, but this is what actually happened. This is the FTSE 250. We can clearly see the blip on June 23rd 2016 but look what happens next, Brex-geddon is always just around the corner for the Remainiacs…

FTSE250 15Feb17sml

Next, unemployment. Before the referendum Remain said a vote to leave would cause half a million job losses (who does their forecasting? Nostradamus?) Well this graph shows the reality:

Figure 10_ Unemployment rate and changes in employment level

And this graph shows unemployment over an even longer time frame:

Screen Shot 2018-09-25 at 19.52.18 2

The above graph shows that when we joined in 1973 we had 3.7% unemployment … Then we joined and it doubled … And now we are leaving it’s plummeting back to 3.7%. Coincidence? Next up, employment. It’s at record levels…

screenshot2019-01-31at13.58.55

Next up, government borrowing. This graph (Guardian January ’19) shows how government borrowing has fallen every year since the referendum:

image

On 21st February 2019 the Telegraph reported: “The Government delivered a record budget surplus in January … A surplus of £14.9bn in January, the largest since records began in 1993, put public sector borrowing on track to comfortably undershoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts. Borrowing in the financial year-to-date is at its lowest level in 17 years.” Could the reality be any more different to the hysterical predictions of the Re-mainiacs?

Next, wages. This graph shows wages over the last five years…

Screen Shot 2018-12-11 at 13.12.06

The red line shows the June ’16 referendum. We can clearly see wage rises were more erratic in the years before the referendum and steadier afterwards. Coincidence? They rose less than one percent, in the 30 months before the referendum but by over 1.5% in the 30 months after. Coincidence?

Ahh, but wage rises are irrelevant if inflation is rising faster, so is it? No. It is not…

_103377979_inflation

Yeah yeah, but people might claim that that is a short-term cherry-picked blip. The facts suggest it isn’t. This next graph shows wages as a percentage of GDP over a 60 year period. The red line shows the date we joined. For 25 years before we joined the EU it was about 58% whereas for 40 years after we joined the EU it was consistently about 6% lower. Coincidence?

chart_3089896c2 2

But hold it … let’s take another look at a wages graph … because it’s so much fun! This is from the Guardian in January …

image.png

So the correlation constantly holds up:
Independent democracy = Prosperity.
EU member state = decline.

If Political Union made us more prosperous then surely we would find ourselves selling more and more goods and services to the Single Market and less and less to the rest of the world – but the opposite is happening!

image

As Phil Radford shows here the Single Market has not benefited any sector of the U.K. Economy.

The next two graphs show how leaving the Single Market will make us richer. The first one shows the long term decline of global tariffs…

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…and this one shows our EU contributions going up and up.

linechartimage

There is no such thing as free trade with the EU, we either:
A, pay a membership fee and no tariffs, or…
B, pay tariffs and no membership fee.

Why would we want to pay membership fees that are going up and up, when we could pay tariffs that are going down and down? The obvious answer is that we wouldn’t, unless of course we wanted to make ourselves poorer for the sake of some irrational ideological belief. Clearly paying tariffs will make us richer than paying EU membership fees; doubly so when we consider that the whole of society has to pay the membership fee whereas the only people who need to pay the tariffs are the 6% of British companies that export goods (not services) to the EU. EU tariffs would amount to less than half the UK’s net contribution to the EU budget. That would mean an automatic saving of about £5 billion per annum. What do YOU think that £5 billion should be spent on? Soon you will have a vote on it!

Not convinced yet? Is there maybe some tiny scintilla of doubt about the correlation between independent democracy and prosperity? Ok here is a Map of the world. Lets call the blue area the EU market and the red area the ‘World Market‘.map brexit

Which should we be concerned about? The EU market that is small and has low growth? … or the ‘World Market’ is big and has high growth?

We can either:
A, Lock ourselves into the small, low growth EU market which will make goods from the World Market more expensive and prevent us from doing any trade deals. Or…
B, Not lock ourselves into the EU market in which case we can strike whatever trade deals we like with whoever we like, whenever we like.

It’s the no-brainer of the century. If we remain in a union with the EU we will become less democratic which will mean we will become poorer. ALL the empirical evidence corroborates this and NONE of the empirical evidence contradicts it.

So good news all round – Get ready for the Brexit Boom!

Note – I have stopped updating this blog as of March ’19 as Theresa May’s suspension of Article 50 makes the issue of causation less clear for both sides.

If you aren’t totally bored of this subject, my fantastic book ‘Brexit – How the Nobodies Beat the Somebodies’ is available from i2i Publications.

16 thoughts on “Yet MORE Graphs that Demolish Remain! (Updated)

  1. This is very interesting. Just in the interests of getting wording right – for the first graph, you don’t mean GDP has gone down, you mean GDP *growth* has gone down. It’s an equally strong point in my view, but a slightly different one. I can just see the average remainer starting this article, going “he doesn’t even know what that graph is showing” and smugly clicking away.

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    1. Hi there and thanks for your comment. Obviously when I saw how wages had stagnated as we became increasingly integrated within the EU, I was itching to include a graph showing that decline of wages growth. But then I saw this graph showing that there is a general, approximate and long term correlation between inflation and wage growth:

      https://www.economicvoice.com/uk-wage-growth-lagging-inflation/

      So to include a graph showing the decline of wages, but to miss out a graph showing that it corresponded to inflation would have been misleading.

      No cherry-picking here at the blue anchor! sx

      Liked by 1 person

  2. The Elites have Risen and overthrown the Tyranny of the People – Long Live the Establishment!
    The Population, having forfeited the Trust & Confidence of Parliament, must now strive to be worthy.
    In the meantime, they will be abolished and a new, more malleable & docile people elected.
    (No apologies to Brecht.)

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Hi Neil, thanks for your comment. I used to update this article every time some new juicy stats cropped up but I’ve stopped now because when Theresa May cancelled our exit the issue of causation became much more ambiguous. Before all the economic data was seen in the context of us deciding to leave and it being about to happen but now that has become arguable. For example let’s say some really bad economic news cropped up (say unemployment) do we attribute that to us leaving or to us not leaving? I could easily argue that our trade balance has collapsed since May suspended our departure but that would feel like a cheap shot based on one specific data set over a short period. All things considered I think we will be a more prosperous nation once we can again write all our own laws re goods, services, labour and capital because that’s what the general long-term stats from India, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Chile, Greenland, Iceland etc tell us.

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  3. Bring back Harold Wilson all is forgiven.
    Thank you for reminding us that the 70’s Labour governmnt stands at the high point of UK economic performance.
    In fact all your graphs show is how Thatcherism failed the UK and how the rise of the East has watered down comparative performance for everyone.
    If you look at real incomes for EU countries and the success of extending its membership a different story is told.

    Like

  4. The great irony of the ”LABOUR isn’t Working” ad for the 1979 election (featuring Saatchi & Saatchi staff) is that U/E was 1.4M and falling. Within 18months Thatcher, under the mad tutelage of Sir Keith Joseph, had it approaching 3M before Galtieri moved on the Falklands, under the impression that they were the Malvinas.
    Even a khaki election saw the tory vote fall but the iniquitous FPtP/voluntary voting on a working day electoral system ensured a substantial majority by the mid 80s it was over 4M when including the various statistical fudges such as sick benefit, bogus training schemes & make-work churning.
    Funny how U/E has never since come within spitting distance of the last real ”Labour” government,
    trapped in the amber of false memory as the Winter of Discontent.
    We should be so lucky these days!

    Like

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